New Jersey's Political Evolution: A Town-by-Town Journey Through Shifting Coalitions
The 2024 election revealed a fascinating political transformation in New Jersey, but what does it mean for the future?
The Garden State's 2024 presidential election results showcased a dramatic shift in voting patterns, particularly among nonwhite voters in the New York City metro area, who swung in favor of Donald Trump. This unexpected surge raises intriguing questions about the longevity of such a coalition and its impact on the upcoming governor's race and beyond.
By analyzing municipal-level data and Census Bureau insights, we uncover a detailed story of demographic and geographic changes in political leanings. Focusing on the period since 2012, excluding Trump's presence on the ballot, we can identify clear trends in party support.
Trump's appeal exploded in densely populated, nonwhite, formerly industrial cities like Paterson, Perth Amboy, and Passaic. This surge in Republican support, which had been gradually building since 2012, reached new heights in 2024. Conversely, Democrats gained ground in affluent shore towns, suburbs with highly educated professionals, and retirement hotspots.
These contrasting trends set the stage for a critical examination: Are these shifts a temporary Trump-era anomaly or a long-term political realignment?
The Biggest Democratic Shifts:
Since 2012:
- Mantoloking, a beach town with a population of 331, located near the end of the Jersey Shore train line, has seen a significant shift. Over half the residents work in finance or management, and 45% work from home, well above the state average. The mean household income and home sale prices are impressive, but it's worth noting that Republican support has softened here, indicating a trend among wealthier, educated voters.
Since 2016:
- Cape May Point, a small beach town at the southern tip of the Jersey peninsula, is mostly residential with an older population. Its home values are among the highest in South Jersey, reflecting a shift in demographics and political preferences.
Since 2020:
- Avalon, a historically affluent shore town, now boasts the state's fifth-oldest population. Home sale prices have soared, attracting attention to this demographic shift.
- Leisuretowne, a retirement community in South Jersey, has grown significantly since its development in the 1970s and 1980s, with a median age of 72.5.
The Biggest Republican Shifts:
Since 2012:
- Port Reading, an industrial neighborhood, is strategically located near major highways and bridges, attracting distribution companies like FedEx and Wakefern Food Corp. Its demographics have shifted, with a significant increase in the Latino population over the past two decades.
Since 2016:
- Passaic, with a large Latino population, is a working-class town with a high percentage of residents without high school diplomas. It also has a substantial Orthodox Jewish population, as evidenced by the presence of the Brook Haven Mall, the self-proclaimed largest kosher mall in the U.S.
Since 2020:
- Perth Amboy, once known for its terra-cotta production, is now a predominantly Latino city with a large Dominican population. It's a diverse melting pot, home to significant Dominican, Peruvian, and Palestinian communities, but it also faces economic and crime-related challenges.
- Elizabeth, the state's fourth-largest city, is a major transit hub with an airport, a container port, and a bridge connecting it to Staten Island. It has a diverse population, with a significant portion born outside the U.S. and a large Spanish-speaking community.
But here's where it gets intriguing: These political shifts are not isolated incidents. They reflect broader trends in voter behavior and demographic changes. The question remains: Are these trends here to stay, or will they fade with time? And what does this mean for the future of American politics?
What do you think? Are these political realignments a temporary blip or a new normal? Share your thoughts in the comments, and let's explore the future of New Jersey's political landscape together!
